FiveThirtyEight US Senate Forecast, updated Tuesday September 20, 2022, 8:49 am EST

In my intro American politics class, I always teach during the fall election cycle, so that I can engage the students in US politics by following the most competitive US Senate elections. This real-time following of an election campaign is how my eighth-grade social studies teacher got me hooked on politics, and I’ve seen it do the same for my international students! (I discuss this classroom experience further in my blog post, as well as an article I published in the Journal of Political Science Education.

To help my students dive into the politics of their Senate candidates’ states and specific issues, I created a handout for each competitive race so that the students could find accurate and responsible sources of information. (Here’s an example of the 2020 Maine race between incumbent Senator Susan Collins and challenger Sara Gideon.) I enjoyed putting together these overviews every election cycle as it helped me learn more about the candidates and the issues in each state. Following these competitive elections alongside my students also helped me feel prepared for my all-nighters on live international TV with Al Jazeera as the midterm results came rolling in! 

Would you like to follow the most competitive Senate races this midterm election? I guarantee you that it will make the second Tuesday (after the first Monday) in November (a.k.a., Election Day) a lot more interesting! Here are my picks for the top nine Senate races to watch in the 2022 midterms. Click below for more information for you to learn more about these candidates and the issues!

WISCONSIN: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (Rep.) versus challenger Mandela Barnes (Dem.)

GEORGIA: Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (Dem.) versus challenger Herschel Junior Walker (Rep.)

NEVADA: Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Dem.) versus challenger Adam Paul Laxalt (Rep.)

NORTH CAROLINA (updated, October 19th!): Open seat (currently Republican-controlled): Ted Budd (Rep.) versus Cheri Beasley (Dem.)

OHIO (updated, October 21st!): Open seat (currently Republican-controlled): J.D. Vance (Rep.) versus Tim Ryan (Dem.)

ARIZONA: Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (Dem.) versus challenger Blake Masters (Rep.)

PENNSYLVANIA (updated, October 21st!): Open seat (currently Republican-controlled): Mehmet Oz (Rep.) versus John Fetterman (Dem.)

FLORIDA (updated, October 18th!): Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio (Rep.) versus challenger Val Demings (Dem.)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (Dem.) versus challenger Don Bolduc (Rep.)